Is the Cost Too High? My two sense…
My perspective: I’m a semi-retired, national asset management executive, Chief Investment Officer for a few of the largest banks, responsible for the management of billions. I was paid to analyse economies and markets, to look over the horizon and decide what if anything should be changed from a portfolio perspective, about what I saw.
The situation: Trump is in a political crisis called Covid. Having ignored intelligence for three years, surrounding himself with acting incompetence, and by feeding his hubris with encouragement from Fox pundits, his long overdue debt to the country is being called. The US economy is already in recession, only a few weeks into the administrations’ months late and pathetic response. Investment markets have been very clear. Investors vote every day. Investors anticipate a disaster and markets have collapsed. Market behavior is the truth. What? The truth? Yes, in my considerable experience with investors of all stripes, investors will vote in their own best interest in the anonymous voting booth of the markets. I’m sure that even Sean Hannity, away from his public role as State sponsored media, has changed his portfolio, betting against Trump. Even political neophytes like myself can see that Trump’s re-election is in the ICU, choking on its’ own infection, waiting for a respirator.
The Hail Mary: This impending political disaster is a power failure. The powerful in the daylight and in the shadows who propped up Trump must be panicked that their grasp on power is in a death spiral. What to do? Time for a hail Mary desperation strategy. Change the script. The Covid risks are overblown. Deny science. Deny the experts. Denigrate 79 year old doctor patriots. Make pronouncements about miracle drugs arriving any day. Make the case that the cost to society is too high. Trillions lost in the stock market! Billions lost by companies! Make the point that the common flu is really bad too and we don’t shut down the US economy because of the flu. Hammer the fact that 50,000 could die from the flu! Attempt to launch the trial balloon that US industry should go back to work in April. Unshackle the American economy! We were born to work! So sayeth the reborn proletariat from the mount, and thus it was so… The Fox pundits took to their drums.
My analysis: Probably obvious given how transparent Trump operates, but here is how I understand the goals of this strategy: Play the gambit that by unlocking health controls (as if we had any uniform national controls now…), the US economy can rebuild some momentum going into the summer and simultaneously bet that this virus follows the course of many other types of viral infections and its spread lessens into the summer. This could be called the ‘drop-kick’ approach, sending the live grenade into the Fall, when the second wave of this infection would likely mirror the second wave of the Spanish flu in the fall of 1918 perfectly, once again causing millions of deaths. The bet may hinge on what Trump repeated several times, 50,000 deaths from the flu. So long as the number of deaths from Covid doesn’t surpass 50,000 by the time of the election next fall, he can claim victory, regardless of what happens later…
However, if we actually listen to the scientists, to the doctors, I am hearing them speak in terms of weeks, not months regarding the explosion of infections. Trump’s lack of leadership has us in a place where we are going to have the highest number of infections in the world within days. Even if Trump stays the course Vs reopening the US economy, we are in trouble…And so is Trump’s re-election.
My advice: Even though I see Trump as the worst President in the history of our country, I would offer some advice that might actually win him re-election. Stop being a President for only the 30% of Americans who are your blinded loyalists, who would joyfully support you shooting someone on 5th Avenue. Instead, be a President for all Americans. Rise up. Create a positive legacy. Guild it, we know you would anyway. But be the national leader this nation desperately needs right now. This is one of those times of history. Dig deep and find your better angels. Returning to my area of expertise, follow this advice and the markets will cheer. This is the re-election you should be paying attention to…please.